Saturday, May 31, 2008

Thoughts to Ponder upon


1- Freedom how free it is?
What’s the limit of freedom.... Is there any... or it just beyond... That’s is why its freedom? How much it costs us, it sounds FREE for dumb (DOM) but so called knowledgeable pays for it as get caught up in knowledge (No + Edge) and never become free...!!

2- Trust, how fair it is?
How it feels when someone puts all his/her trust in you? Up to an extent more than oneself on its own..!! Does it give warmth of bondage of coldest scare?? It happens when a person becomes very significant for someone who has lost direction and searching the path with direction in tattered pieces of his days... suddenly founds a light and strength with your guidance... and instant liberation...! But how about being someone’s God, you loose your freedom as you are no longer free someone's trust is binding you which you need to take care... it you break it its not Trust...!!

3- How personal is personal life?
Personal life portrayal on public. What is personal? The fact which is confined to only one that’s you. What is public? The fact which get shared among more than one (off course micro view). Personal life meaning life within, to the micro level thoughts... Our thoughts are our very own but the moment we share those with others it no longer personal. Trust act as binding and accompanied with expectation hinders the ripples... If you tell your secret to wind don’t blame it when it reveals it to tress..!! Trust sounds discrete but it is backed but expectation isn't it..!!
When we reveal our thoughts to others, we are free to do so... Why isn't other person free to pass it on?? How personal is personal life up to an extent of invisibility, anonymity with the doubt of existence OR visible up to an extent of chain of freedom-of-expression to get mingle with public...!!

For You...


Shiny eyes...
Careless smile...
From the deep of your heart,
As reflection of my presence,
On your face..
That’s all I will ever need,
For my true happiness...!!
A walk,
On a lonely road..
Greeted by tress...
Welcomed by drizzling..
Cool breeze adding symphony
Your hand in mine,
That’s all I ever need.
For my days to get refreshed..!!

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Driving Forces Behind Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices are roaring louder, which is nudging 150 USD per barrel… I always wonder how world decides this price?
How transparent and fair are the driving forces behind sky rocketing pace of oil price rise??
  1. A significant percentage of physical oil transactions occur outside the regulated market and beyond the view of analysts and traders.
  2. The day’s spot price denotes the price at which a few origins of crude are sold.
  3. As the market rarely has real-time knowledge of production and stocks, traders have to place their faith on the figures put out by a few agencies such as Platts.
  4. Crude futures do not move exclusively in response to physical supply and demand conditions. They are determined by many factors such as-
  • The positions taken by traders in many other assets (for example , bonds, equities, foreign exchange and other commodities)·
  • Declining dollar
  • Market speculation
  • Refinery bottlenecks and geopolitical concerns.

The price of a barrel of oil depends on –

1- Grade (which is determined by factors such as specific gravity and sulphur content)

2- Location.

3- The lighter, sweeter crudes (low sulphur) are easier to refine than heavier, sourer crudes.

With the increase in crude oil prices, even refining heavier, sourer crudes has now become more profitable. Oil prices have risen, particularly for better quality crude oils, to bring supply and demand into balance.

Benchmarks for oil pricing system-

I- Brent - Almost all oil traded outside America and the Far East is priced using Brent as a benchmark.

II- West Texas Intermediate - is the main benchmark for pricing oil imports into the USA.

III- Dubai-Oman -is used as a benchmark for Gulf crudes (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait) sold in the Asia-Pacific market.

In crude oil, spot contracts mean delivery over the coming month, e.g., a contract signed in June for delivery in July. The market consists of refiners, traders, producers , and transporters. Spot markets allow buyers and sellers, e.g., refiners and marketers, to adjust their supplies to reflect near-term supply and demand conditions. Till the late Eighties, the spot price of reference crude varieties was the accepted price of the day. But when the total production of the benchmark crudes began to drop and the volumes traded daily correspondingly fell, it became difficult to determine the correct price. Price assessing agencies came up with a few solutions. To make up for the drop in Brent production, for instance, in July 2002, Platts broadened its definition of Brent to include Forties (UK North Sea) and Oseberg (Norway). The new benchmark was called BFO.

The more lasting solution was shift to a futures market. Crude futures have two main advantages : one, they are not easily distorted by low spot market volumes. Two, futures price is determined by actual transactions in the futures exchanges and not on the basis of some assessed prices by oil reporting agencies. At any time, a seller or a buyer can look at the prevailing price and use it in spot and term contracts. The volume of daily transactions and open positions also helps investors gauge the liquidity of the market. Since most traders cancel their positions, futures transactions rarely lead to actual delivery.

Though crude futures prices are more transparently fixed than spot prices, not all contracts are successful. A crude oil contract becomes trustworthy only when its production is not controlled by a few companies and it has reasonably large volumes. If a few companies or even one company controls production, then the likelihood of price manipulation rises. Even if the oil pipelines and infrastructure are owned by a few, it increases the likelihood of manipulation.

(Source: ET)

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Three girls: Every Individual has a Story


I was reading a book named Red Carpet by Lavanya Shankar… Apart from the content of the book which is very thoughtfully written, I liked the punch line of the book also. It says “Every family has a story!!” agreed rather I believe in its elaborated version, every individual has a story. Some are shared, some are told and many are even untold. I knew three people, who have something; which can be perceived as story but they are so innocently unaware of it!
Sarandha, she is very affectionate, caring, amiable and sweet girl. It hardly takes any time for her to mingle with people its like putting rose water drops in plain water which will get mixed so well that its difficult to see those two as separate entity. Parul, she is quite, clam, reserved girl. Will talk as much as needed and no cribs to others about anything whether it’s personal life or work. And Mrinal, who is person yet to explore world as good or as bad on her own. Innocence is still alive and think everybody around is good. Lot of preoccupied thoughts and sees the world as other people have shown her.
The biggest character of this whole play on this earth has put these three girls Sarandha, Parul and Mrinal together. They are set free to act in their very own way; they have got their own freedom of speech, expression, sharing, etc etc.. Sarandha initially felt that her space is getting breached, but very soon overcomes it and as per her very own instincts mingle with other two. They feel the warmth of their friendship. They share jokes and giggle together. They share low and weak moments and ready to give shoulder. Silently ignorant about the sweet poison called expectation which leads towards taken for granted concept. Slowly they are caught up, and seeing friendship which they were nurturing and cherishing is getting tattered. Bitterness infused into their relation as nature does to chili. All the heartily laugh and giggles got ruined. Rotten ill words blabbered in high temper; passes on to other with spices and misinterpreted works as perfect poison to the ears. Instead of checking for the driving cause behind it is sweetly acceptable. Every ill thought in their mind started attracting numerous similar ones. Distance which is literally negligible among them started appearing more than thousand of miles. Phone and internet become admiringly adorable to confirm the marked distance mended. The ecstasy of proving own point to be right gives a feel good factor. Nothing can be as melodious as hearing the criticism of person whom we envy. That works as soothing balm to unhealed wounds caused by our own bitterness.
Today Mrinal is leaving the city forever, there is wish in her heart to bid a good-bye with a warm hug to her mates who had stand for her in her thick and thins. They would accept the seasons of your heart just as you have always accepted that seasons pass over your fields and you would watch with serenity through the winters of your grief. Alas! One has to surrender itself to destiny which one carefully carves for itself….

“In the sweetness of friendship let there be laughter, and sharing of pleasures. For in the dew of little things the heart finds its morning and is refreshed”.

Monday, May 19, 2008

Look Within


There is no fire like greed,

No crime like hatred,

No sorrow like separation,

No sickness like hunger of heart,

And no joy like the joy of freedom,

Health, contentment and trust

Are your greatest possessions

And the freedom your greatest joy

Look Within

Be still

Free from fear and attachment,

Know the sweet joy of living in the way.


Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Oil Price Rise: Is OPEC really opaque??



Recent sweltering news which is considered as one major factor among various other reasons behind bearish trend of US stock market as well as Indian too; the exceptional rise in Oil Price to record level. I was wondering what could be the possible reason….? "According to normal economic theory, and the history of oil, rising prices have two major effects: they reduce demand and they induce oil supplies," ....But not this time.....!!!
As-

  1. OPEC-cartel has plenty of reserve as well as non-OPEC countries like Russia, Norway, Greenland, West Africa etc etc…
  2. So it’s not the crisis at supply end due to resource… Demand is increasing at constant rate not exponentially….
  3. Apart from US being the world’s largest consumer of oil, consumption in other developing nations (BRIC) is increasing.
  4. Therefore demand is not going to reduce due to price rise.
  5. “Some Factors” which are driving the OPEC, which is responsible for 75% of reserve to restrain the supply.
  6. President of OPEC makes statement that oil prices to remain unstable.
  7. Long-term oil futures, dated for 2013, now trade at $108 a barrel, a strong indication that investors see little cause for prices to drop in the next five years - partly because of low expectations about production growth. (In NY mercantile exchange)

Few basics information:

Price of 1 Barrel oil as of today (14-May-2008) = USD 124

Price of 1 Barrel oil in year 2000 = USD 24

1 barrel = 42 gallons

1 barrel = 117 liters (Approx)

In India we get oil at subsidized price.

One of the best texts which I came across to know the background of oil price history and analysis read here

All the above points carry their own significance but the fifth points had gained more attention from me. I gathered some information behind driving force which is leading to restraining of supply. Following is the list, out of which some factors responsible for less supply and subsequently price rise are interdependent:-

  1. Monopoly of OPEC: This factor is well known as major pie of reserve is with them.
  2. US economy downturn: that’s continuing since quite some time attributed to sub prime and bearish trend of market. Increasing worries that the US downturn will spread globally – with the slump in US employment confirming that the US downturn is likely to spread into consumer spending which in turn will have a big impact on Japanese, European and Asian exports. Ongoing problems in credit markets with the whole securitization process (whereby individual loans are packaged up into securities) that has underpinned a lot of credit growth in recent years now in disarray, and the banks unable to take up the slack.
  3. Middle East peace process: Gen. Mansour al-Turki, spokesman for the Saudi Interior Ministry said, "They have recognized that the al-Qaida ideology is an ideology to inflame terrorism rather than trying to set up a new approach for Muslim societies". Apart from that tensions between Iran and the international community (in particular the U.S.)
  4. Commodity trading: Due to US downturn in economy, commodity price have increased.. This is also reason for oil price increase… Oil has been traded globally for more than a century, and commodity pricing in the oil sector is well-established. Crude oil prices behave much as any other commodity with wide price swings in times of shortage or oversupply. The crude oil price cycle may extend over several years responding to changes in demand as well as OPEC and non-OPEC supply. There has been a significant increase in paper trading of crude oil on world markets over the last few years (2005 to 2008). While the effects of increased trading activity are hard to quantify, it appears that speculative trading has, at the very least, increased the level of volatility in crude oil prices.
  5. Terrorism: This is something much rumored… Story goes like this; a significant portion of money earned through oil trade goes to terrorist organizations. And they keep some money aside for weapon and rest they pump in to stock market. As and when need arise to them they pull the money out from market and its huge sum of money which is sufficient to crash the market….!!
  6. Inflation: This factor directly translates to reason for higher price… As soon as world oil prices move up, inflationary expectations take over… :)
  7. Cost of production: geographical, political factor along with cost and availability of labor…
  8. Government Policy: Most of the Non-OPEC countries they have astringent rules for FDI to set up refineries
  9. Increasing consumption: Consumption is increasing, but not at exponential rate, though US blames developing countries for increasing demand…
  10. Lack of alternative energy sources: “oil is non-renewable energy source” is well known fact but still no alternative option had been introduced on mass level….
  11. USD Depreciation: Significant depreciation of the U.S. currency due in part to credit problems in the sub-prime mortgage market.
  12. International politics: I was reading an article which co-related Butto’s assassination and increase in oil price. It says rise in oil prices after the assassination Bhutto is an evidence of the size of the security interdependence between the Gulf States and Pakistan, since the start of the global war on terrorism. The Hariri of Lebanon invested with Nawaz Sharif and later failed to mediate between Pervez Musharraf and Nawaz Sharif last Augustus. Harirri was embarrassed later by the Pakistani reaction saying: they do enjoy a strong relationship with Saudi Arabia, so they do not require mediation by a person exercising political activity in another country.(I am not very sure how much this factor attributes to oil price rise…)

    Factors responsible for hindering to bolster production:



Saturday, May 10, 2008

The Crocodile and the Monkey


I was reading a book called "Beastly tales from here & there" by Vikram Seth. Found his recreation of stroy in poetic way delightful. Here is one nice story of crocodile and monkey which I used to listen in childhood from my grandma in summer vaccations....


On the Ganga's greenest isle
Lived Kuroop the Crocodie:
Greeny-brown with gentle grin,
Stubby legs and scaly skin,
He would view with tepid eyes,
Prey below a certain size
But when substantial dish
Dolphin, turtle, fatter fish
Swam accross his field of view,
He would test the water too.
Out he'd glide, a floting log,
Silent as a polliwog
Nearer, nearer, till his prey
Swam single length away;
Then he'd lunge with smiling head,
Grab, and snap, and rip it dead
Then (prime pleasure of his life)
Drags the carcass to his wife,
Lay it humbly at her feet,
Eat a bit, and watch her eat.
All along the river-bank
Mango trees stood rank on rank,
And his monkey friend would throw
To him as he swam below
Mangoes gold and ripe and sweet
As a special summer treat
"Crocodile, your wife I know
Hungers after mangoes so
That she'dpine and weep swoon,
Mangoes-less in burning June."
The Kuroop the crocodile,
Gazing upwards wih smile,
Thus the addressed his monkey friend:
"Dearest monkey, in the end,
Not the fruit, but your sweet love,
Showered on us from above,
Constant through the changing years,
Slakes her griefs and dries her tears."
(This was only partly true
She liked love, and mangoes too.)
One day Mrs. Crocodile,
Gorged on mangoes, with smile
Sad, yet tender- turned and said:
"Scalykins, since we've been wed,
You've fulfilled my every wish
Dolphins, turtles, mangoes, fish
But I now desire to eat,
As an anniversary treat,
Something sweeter still than fruit,
Sugar-cane or sugar-root:
I must eat that monkey's heart."
"What?" "Well, darling, for a start,
He has been so kind to me;
Think how sweet his heart must be:
Then, the mango pulp he's eaten
Year on year must serve to sweeten
Further yet each pore and part,
Concentrating in his heart."
"Darling, he's my friend." I know;
And he trusts you. Therefore go-
Go at once and fetch him here
Oh, my breath grows faint, I fear..."
"Let me fan you- it's the heat"
"No- I long for something sweet.
Every fruit tastes bitter now.
I must eat his heart somehow.
Get him here, my love, or I,
Filled with bitterness, will die."
When the money saw Kuroop
He let out a joyful whoop,
Jumped from branch to branch with pleasure,
Flinging down the golden treasure:
"Eat, my friend, and take your wife
Nectar from the tree of life
Mangoes ripe and mangoes rare,
Mangoes, mangoes everywhere."
Then Kuroop the crocodile
Gazed up with gentle smile:
"Monkey, you are far too kind,
But today, if you don't mind,
Dine with both of us, and meet
Her whose life you've made so sweet.
when you meet her you will see
Why she mean so much to me.
When she takes you by paw
Something at your heart will gnaw.
When you gaze into her eyes
You will enter paradise
Let us show your gratitude:
Share our friendship and our food."
"Dear Kuroop, dear crocodile,
You can swim from isle to isle.
I can leap from limb to limb,
But, my friend, I cannot swim.
And your island's far away.
If I get a boat some day..."
"Nonsense; jump upon my back.
You're no heavier than my sack
Filled with mangoes to the crown."
So the monkey clambered down,
Bearing mangoes, and delighted
With such warmth to be invited.
They were just halfway across
When the crocodile said: "Toss
All the mangoes in the water."
"But these fruit are all I've brought her."
"You yourself are the gift enough,"
Said Kuroop in accents gruff.
"Ah, my friend, that's very gracious."
"Well, my wife's not so voracious-
And I'm certain that today
She won't eat fruit. By the way.
Tell me what your breast contains.
Mango nectar fills your veins.
Does it also fill your hear?"
Said the monkey with the start:
"What a very curious question."
"Well, she might get indigestion
If it's too rich, I suspect."
"What?" "Your heart." "My heart?" "Corect."
"Now," Kuroop said with a frown,
"Which would you prefer- todrown
In the Ganga or to be
Gutted by my wife and me?
I will let you choose your end.
After all, you are my friend."
Then he slowly started sinking.
"Wait" the monkey said, "I'm thinking.
Death by drowning, death by slaughter
Deat by land or death by water
I'd face either with smile
For your sake, O crocodile!
But your wife felicity
That's what means the most to me.
Noble lady! How she'll freeze,
Dumb with sorrow, when she sees,
Havig prised my ribs apart,
That my breast contains no heart.
If you had not rushed me so,
I'd have found the time to go
To the hollow where I keep
Heart and liver when I sleep,
Half my brain, and fingernail,
Cufflinks, chutney and spare tail.
I had scarcely woken up
When you asked me here to sup.
Why did you not speak before?
I'd have fetched them from the shore."
Now Kuroop the crocodile
Lost, then quickly found, his smile.
"How my sweetheart will upbraid me!
Monkey, monkey you must aid me."
"Well " the monkey placed his paw
Thoughtfully upon his jaw
"Well, although the day is hot
And I'd really rather not
We could go back, fetch my heart,
Check its sweetness, and depart."
So the crocodile once more
Swam the monkey back to shore,
And, with tears of thankfullness
Mingled with concern and stress,
Worried what his wife would say
With regard to his delay,
Begged his friend : "Come back at once."
"I'm not such a double-dunce,"
Yelled the monkey from the high;
"Tell your scaly wife to try
Eating her own wicked heart
If she has one for a start
Mine's been beating in my breast
Night and day without rest.
Tell her that and for you,
Here's my parting gift" He threw
Mangoes squishy, rotten, dead
Down upon the reptile's head,
Who, with a regretful smile,
Sat and eyed him for a while.

Bangalore Airport

Bangalore airport experiences have been part and parcel of my travel now……Every trip is a new venture towards experiencing something UNEXPECTED….If Bangalore airport is part of ones travel, one should not put thoughts for following:
1- Crowed and unsusual long queue for boarding pass and security check.
2- Any kind of discipline or punctuality
3- Clean rest-rooms
4- When your baggage shifts for one conveyor belt to another
5- If you have any connecting flight with less margin of time, please don’t worry you are in HELL right now.
Well list can’t be dragged to individual intricacies…. What happens when one runs out of choices? Obviously one become prone to crib about its own misery rather you would start laughing on others sailing in the same boat which you have already done..!
I can still recall when I have to go to Lucknow my home town and my flight was via Delhi, I was suppose to leave early morning around 10am and reaching my home around 5pm… those were my college days, semester break, was pretty excited about going home… that’s was one among initial few experience of hell, things were moving slowly… got boarding pass with delay of 45 mins in departure, seems ok as still have 2 hrs of waiting time in Delhi for connecting flight… finally got boarding call, standing in queue somewhere in between the crowd… started feeling irritated after standing for 15 mins in same place, and in another 5 mins got the announcement for further delay… now concern was how much delay, and due to what reason? How much that part is unanswerable… absolute uncertain…! First reason will come instantaneously ‘air traffic control"
Such a thing nobody can help, what you will do, max max shout on top of your voice…!! Do it… those guys are noise proof….!
When delay was almost 3 hrs which exceeded waiting time I lost the hope for connecting flight from Delhi and decided for cancellation and buying new ticket with refund money and some more money… After reaching to ticket counter discovered that no money I will be getting as refund happens at agent’s place who books it….!! Hehehe was nice to hear that (now I am laughing but that point of time my circuit was out) so all the friends and relatives become dearer to me… called up my uncle and ask him for arrangement for my ticket… as I had just thousand bucks or so in my pocket… at last reached Delhi at 8pm…!!! And there were no available flights for Lucknow for the same day…!! Hahhahaha that’s called the irony of fate…. Excitement completely drained out… when I saw my uncle at Delhi I was so happy that I would have ever been so to see him... :D
Sometime back I encountered the similar thing, this time I was not the honored guest in hell rather I was spectator… someone else was the privileged soul to step in… Delay was more on expected side… I had a book by my favorite author with me, but decided not to open it rather watch out the real melodrama… almost everyone will start asking what is the matter, why delay, how long will it take… etc etc.. Then most of them will be on phone telling this story…. After 15-20 mins of mayhem things will be settled... you will be served with some snack irrelevant with the time…some raw bread slices with raw veggies, buscuits etc etc... while muching this i saw a man with his family missed his connecting flight and was furious.. (obviously) and started shouting on ground force people who deals with customers on top of his voice… my fellow passenger whispered now we will have some entertainment..!! Alas, only one side of dialogs was audible other side was like calm sea…I just wondered on myself whether I am getting use to of hell or becoming saddist to have fun on others pitty...!
As per the latest news by media that existing domestic airport was suppose to be shifted almost 40 km away....I was thinking how would it be 2-3 hrs local Bangalore travel and 2-3 hrs actual travel for destination... :) :) And how about eve peak hours traffic?? ahhhh paradise...!!but one day I read it might not get shifted to the new vicinity, puts smile on my face.. what ever it be, I like this hell oops paradise....!!
"Fear for hell is hell itself, longing for paradise is paradise itself"....!!

Friday, May 9, 2008

Sense of Responsibility: Desh Ko Chalane Ki

Every morning while traveling I listen to radio in cab. Its almost part of my daily travel now.Sometime some dialogs heard makes lot of sense to me… rather what is going in your mind and if you hear it with your ear makes more sense…!! Few lines which I can recall are-
“First person : Mai aap ka vote mangane aaya hun..
Second person : aaiye aaiye; aapki qualification kya hai
First person: aaaaa
Second person: accha bataiye aapka work ex kya hai
First person: 25 years…! (pacchis saal se hain iss field mein)
Second person: nahi sir, work ex matlab, aapka experience construction mae, ngineering mae …
First person: accha accha toh aap mera interview le rahe hain??
Second person: ab aap ne itni baddi jab ke liye jo apply kiya hai..
First person: Kaun si job???? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA…….!!
Second person: IS DESH KO CHALANE KA JOB…!"
Imagine someone is asking our favor, to show concern towards leading this nation (by voting him) and how less concern he is showing towards his accountability and responsibility towards the ‘JOB’??? Isn’t it simply thought provoking??? Should we give a thought before what we are going to do???
“We choose our joys and sorrows much before we experience it”
I had read this line, but never understood completely till the time I correlated it with the above mentioned dialogs….